In a continuation of yesterday’s theme of 2010 political trends, Rob Christensen, the famous Raleigh News & Observer political reporter and author of one of my all-time favorite books, The Paradox of Tar Heel Politics, wrote a column on his predictions for North Carolina politics in the New Year. His article is titled “Who has the edge in ‘10? The view from my murky research…”

The highlights:

• Christensen says Cal Cunningham has the edge in the Democratic primary, but Sen. Richard Burr still has the advantage in the general election.
• The only real battleground Congressional race is the 8th District, where numerous Republican candidates are lining up to take on Rep. Larry Kissell. Christensen gives the slight edge to the GOP (which is surprisingly good news to me!).
• Republican challengers in Triangle area Congressional races are grabbing some headlines, but Christen believes (and I agree) that the entrenched Democratic incumbents there will be tough — if not impossible — to beat. He also gives the nod to the Democrats in trying to retain their majority in the State House.
• The big surprise is that Rob Christensen thinks the GOP has the advantage in trying to capture the State Senate for the first time…ever. Republicans need to pick up six seats to do it. Christensen likes their chances and thinks that a GOP victory would propel State Senate leader Phil Berger to 2012 Governor contender status.

Read the full article below…

Time to haul my fractured, cloudy crystal ball out of the closet for a look at what will happen in Tar Heel politics this year.

Dominating the political landscape will be the Senate contest in which Republican Sen. Richard Burr faces re-election in November.

But first the Democrats must choose a challenger in the May primary. The three main contestants are former state Sen. Cal Cunningham of Lexington, Chapel Hill attorney Ken Lewis and Secretary of State Elaine Marshall.

Cunningham has the backing of the powerful Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the White House, giving him a significant money advantage. Marshall’s best hope is to run a feisty underdog campaign with the support of liberals, women and lots of contributors. Lewis, a political novice, is trying to make a huge leap. In the primary, edge Cunningham.

Burr’s polling numbers are anemic for an incumbent. It’s not that people don’t like Burr, but after five years in office, he has yet to make a strong impression. Despite his standing in the polls, Burr is a well-financed, A-list candidate running in a Republican-leaning year. In the general election, edge Burr.

The one true swing congressional district in the state is the 8th, which stretches from Charlotte to Fayetteville.

Freshman Democrat Larry Kissell is already facing a divided party because of his vote against the Democrats’ health care plan. Edge Republicans.

Republican candidates are lining up to challenge Triangle Democratic Reps. David Price, Brad Miller and Bob Etheridge. But these are entrenched, well-financed incumbents in Democratic-leaning districts. Edge Democrats.

The North Carolina Senate has been in Democratic hands for 110 years. The Democrats hold a 30-20 lead, and the GOP needs to pick up six seats. With a number of veteran Democrats retiring, this is possible. Would a newly installed Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger begin laying the groundwork for a challenge to Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue in 2012? Edge Republicans.

The GOP is looking for a repeat of 1994 when it gained control of the state House for the first time in nearly a century. But House Democrats, who hold a 68-52 majority, are in a stronger position than their Senate colleagues. Edge Democrats.

This is my 17th year of making predictions, and they should be taken with a truckload of salt.

Last year I predicted: that Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker would be re-elected (right); that Attorney General Roy Cooper would enter the Senate race (wrong); that Gene Conti would be named transportation secretary (right); that Dempsey Benton would remain Health and Human Services secretary (wrong); that Perdue would persuade the legislature to raise the cigarette tax (right); that the unions would push through Congress a bill to allow Tar Heel law enforcement personnel to organize (not yet); and Hampton Dellinger and Ripley Rand would be named two of the state’s new U.S. attorneys (stay tuned).

The people of North Carolina have spoken.  And they are not happy with the state government’s handling of the economy. 7,672 North Carolinians responded to the “Concerned Citizens Survey”: 87 percent of the respondents vote in every election, another 11 percent vote in most elections. (Politicians, do we have your attention now?) Could this widespread populist anger spell trouble for Democrats in the state in 2010?

Here are some survey highlights:

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We’re adding a new feature to the RunSmart2Win blog: Five Questions With _______. We will talk to North Carolina’s news makers, political insiders and experts, asking them five questions — and five questions only — on politics and campaigning in the Old North State. I’m excited to bring you the first edition today: Five Questions with Peter Hans:

1. What do you like about politics? And what do you not like about politics? I like the excitement, the people, and the chance to accomplish something important. I dislike the pressures of raising money, the personal nature of many attacks, and losing.
2. What advice do you have for “the mob” (as the Democrats call them) of activists, concerned citizens, and political newcomers wanting to get involved, make a difference, or even run for office? People in our country and around the world have given their lives for freedom. But too often, we forget that democracy requires participation. So I love to see citizens, of every political persuasion, fulfill their civic responsibilities.
3. You’ve been in the trenches of some North Carolina’s biggest political battles in recent years, advising senators Lauch Faircloth, Elizabeth Dole, Richard Burr, and others. What have traditionally been “winning issues” for Republicans in North Carolina? Are these issues changing at all as the state grows, changes demographically, and becomes more urban/suburban? Traditionally our winning issues on the federal level have centered around family values, limited government, and national security. Our state is more moderate, philosophically, in years past so the tone of our political communications should reflect that reality while still staying true to our principles.
4. What will separate winning campaigns and candidates from losing ones, specifically in North Carolina, in upcoming elections? The same things that have always separated winning and losing campaigns: ideas, money, organization, and luck. The biggest difference is that “organization” used to mean yard signs and today it means social networking.
5. Do you have any predictions on the 2010 election (in the state or nationally)? I’m cautiously optimistic about 2010 even though the Republican “brand” continues to poll poorly. I believe Republicans will be energized and Democrats deflated going into next year. Our challenge now is to recruit good candidates, don’t take anything for granted, and work hard and smart.

Peter Hans provides strategic advice on government relations to business clients at SZD Wicker, a Raleigh law firm. His background in public policy, political campaigns, and media relations provides clients with a unique resource. Peter worked on Capitol Hill as senior policy advisor to former U.S. Senator Lauch Faircloth and then-U.S. Representative (now U.S. Senator) Richard Burr. He was a consultant to U.S. Senator Elizabeth Dole in her successful 2002 campaign. He was elected by the N.C. House of Representatives in 1997 to a six-year-term on the State Board of Community Colleges. Peter was elected by the N.C. Senate in 2003 to a four-year-term on the University of North Carolina Board of Governors and was re-elected in 2007 for a second term. He was elected vice chairman of the Board in 2008. Peter is currently co-chairing a $5 million capital campaign for Urban Ministries of Wake County.

If you would like to answer “Five Questions” on RunSmart2Win.com, please contact Nathan Babcock.

Yesterday we reported the final results of the Concerned Citizens Survey. The responses do not paint a pretty picture for North Carolina Governor Bev Perdue. Politico has also noticed the early rocky road for Gov. Perdue:

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The final results of the North Carolina Concerned Citizens Survey are in. One month ago we reported on the preliminary survey results, which didn’t look good at all for Gov. Bev Perdue and the Democrats in Raleigh. The final analysis isn’t rosy for the Dems either.

Over 1,000 North Carolinians responded: 86 percent of the respondents vote in every election, another 11 percent vote in most elections. (Politicians, do we have your attention now?) Here are some of the highlights:

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Like many government programs, voter-owned elections have a vaguely Orwellian, name, a noble purpose, and a hefty bill. Voter-owned elections–more accurately, taxpayer-funded elections–are a hot topic in North Carolina, so consider this your brief overview of a heated issue.

What are voter-owned elections? Voter-owned elections are intended to end political corruption and a host of other political problems. The argument is simple: money is a tainting force in politics since it favors the already rich and well-connected candidates and makes politicians feel accountable to their largest donors. There ore, to even the playing field, the taxpayers should foot the bill for a public program that provides money to candidates who wish to avail themselves of it, provided they do not spend any private funds.

The exact mechanisms differ by location, but in general (and in North Carolina), the program features a matching funds trigger. Once a privately-funded candidate in the race passes a threshold in campaign expenditures, the publicly-financed candidate is given matching contributions. Eventually, of course, proponents of the system would like everyone to be using the same amount of taxpayer money.

What are the problems with voter-owned elections? Unfortunately good intentions alone cannot make good policy, especially expensive, convoluted, and potentially unconstitutional policy like voter-owned elections. First, voter-owned elections do not solve the problems they set out to tackle. There is no evidence they have decreased corruption, encouraged broader political participation, or evened the political playing field anywhere they have been implemented. There is no strong argument to suggest they ever will.

Second, and perhaps more importantly, specific provisions of voter-owned elections can run afoul of the Constitution. Money is necessary for political speech, whether it is for buying public ads, yard signs, or even a website. Voter-owned elections laws try to curtail individuals’ political speech by curtailing the amount of money they may spend on political campaigns. In short, the state determines “how much” political speech is necessary for each political race, and then makes candidates dependent on the state for financing. Sounds frightening.

Third, there are practical considerations. There is no reason to send money to political campaigns over public infrastructure, public safety, or public schools, particularly in an economic downturn when local and state governments are struggling to stay out of the red. Additionally, it is fundamentally unfair to force taxpayers to subsidize political campaigns they find uninformed or even offensive. Freedom of association is enshrined in our legal history for a reason.

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I’d like to highlight a few of the websites and North Carolina political blogs we’re tracking at RunSmart2Win. This is our Blogroll of Fame:

• Carolina Politics Online - “…a blog dedicated to discussing political issues throughout both North and South Carolina from a common sense appreciation for freedom and liberty.” This is a great site for tracking the ups and downs of North and South Carolina politicians.
• Conservative NC - “…an online community dedicated to promoting conservative ideals and advancing conservative policies in North Carolina.” Conservative NC is a “hub” of conservative bloggers — much like RedState and TownHall — but dedicated solely to North Carolina issues and politics.
• Civitas Review Online - Another respected North Carolina think tank committed to the ideals of limited government, personal responsibility, and civic engagement, the mission of the Civitas Institute is “to facilitate the implementation of conservative policy solutions to improve the lives of all North Carolinians.” In addition to their great website and blog, Civitas sends out a fantastic e-newsletter.
• John Locke Foundation - This is the website of the respected North Carolina think tank, dedicated to the principles of individual liberty and the free market. Several bloggers spread across the state — from Wilmington to the Triangle, the Triad, Charlotte, and Western North Carolina — write articles and blog entries on behalf of the foundation.
• Katy’s Conservative Corner - Katy Weatherly is one of the most respected and well-known conservative bloggers in North Carolina. She writes hard-hitting commentary on national politics as well as issues affecting North Carolina. And like all true North Carolinians, Katy is a huge college basketball fan.

Do you blog about North Carolina politics or the “in’s and out’s” of campaigning? Let us know and we’ll add you to the Blogroll of Fame!

Your answers to the Concerned Citizens Survey are pouring in…

And the results are not favorable to the Democrat agenda in Raleigh.

Here are a few highlights from the survey responses so far:

>> “Do you think North Carolina’s economy is improving or getting worse?”

• Getting worse - 90.8%
• About the same - 9.2%
• Improving - 0.0%

>> “What economic issue concerns you the most in North Carolina?”

• Government spending - 60.0%
• Taxes - 24.2%
• Immigration - 10.8%
• Annexation - 3.3%
• Education - 0.8%
• Cost of Health Care - 0.8%

>> “Do you think the budget crisis in North Carolina is due to a slow economy or from too much wasteful government spending?”

• Wasteful spending - 91.7%
• Slow economy - 5.8%
• Other - 2.7%

>> And a few of our favorite responses to the question, “If you could have a conversation with your local elected officials, what would you like to tell them?”

• “Stop wasting our money!” (About 70 of you said this!)
• “We as citizens tighten our belts…why doesn’t the government?”
• “What is REALLY happening with the ‘education’ lottery money?”
• “Stop spending. Listen to your constituents.”
• “Taxed. Enough. Already.”
• “Spending, not revenue, is the problem.”
• “I’m embarrassed by the state government of North Carolina.”
• “Listen to the people.”
• “STOP SPENDING!!!”

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Yesterday I posted a “Concerned Citizens Survey“, asking RS2W’s readers to voice opinions on North Carolina government, politics, the economy, and What do you want to tell your elected official?

The Carolina Strategy Group asked similar questions to 1,000 North Carolina voters in May and June. The survey clearly indicates an opening for the Republican Party in the state. The economy is now Pres. Obama’s and Gov. Perdue’s economy. The recent NC House of Representatives budget - and tax increase - was not popular at all with the voters (regardless of party affiliation).

How can and should Republicans capitalize on the populist anger in the state?

Read the survey’s highlights below and respond with your thoughts (download the complete survey here):

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A few interesting facts to show what the real value of a State Senate seat and a State House seat is worth in North Carolina. By looking at what incumbents spent on uncontested seats, we can extract the true value of a particular seat. These figures are taken from the 2006 election cycle and represent the top 3 expenditures in the State Senate and the top 5 expenditures in the State House. Keep in mind these candidates had no primary and no general election opposition. Uncontested Senate races (top 3 by expenditure): Hoyle: $230,801 Hagan: $221,411 Pittenger: $218,493 Avg. expenditure: $223,568.00

Uncontested House races (top 5 by expenditure): Brubaker: $201,369 Holliman: $85,869 Owens: $59172 Bordsen: $56,006 Crawford: $55,016 Avg. expenditure: $94,486 This tells us quite a bit about the value of the legislative seats and what it costs to play the game on Jones Street. Keep in mind these are UNCONTESTED races. Average cost for contested races the NC Senate seats for the 5 most expensive races is a staggering $903,400 and the the NC House top 5 most expensive races is a whopping $648,400.