Someone plugged this redistricting app — giving users the chance to map Congressional Districts, state by state, based on 2010 population projections — and I haven’t gotten anything accomplished since! Warning: before you try it out, plan on wasting at least a couple of hours.

After playing around with how North Carolina would look with 14 Congressional Districts (which appears unlikely in this census) and writing hidden messages in the multi-colored hodgepodge of 3,000 or so precincts, I decided to take a stab at what the state could look like after the 2010 Census. Now, I realize that redistricting is largely a political exercise — with politicians and party bosses choosing their voters. But there are constraints to what the map makers can do (population constraints, rules about when districts can be drawn to cross county lines and when they can’t, etc.). So, unless legislators tear up the old map and start over (which probably wouldn’t be that bad of an idea), this is what North Carolina’s Congressional Districts could look like from 2012 to 2020. If I were a betting man, I’d put money on the map looking something like this…although I would not bet the farm on it!

First, here is a “before and after” picture of North Carolina’s 13 Congressional Districts followed by my observations on which districts change the most and the least. (Note: I flipped the colors around slightly to make CD-12 visible to the naked eye.)

Observations: did the districts shrink, expand, shift, or stay the same?

1. CD-1 Expands - The 1st District gains precincts in Granville County from the 13th District and gains all of southern Vance County, northern Franklin County, and northern Nash County from the 2nd District. The demographic make-up of the 1st District does not change much. Remains Safe Democrat.
2. CD-2 Shrinks and Shifts - The 2nd Districts loses a lot of Eastern NC territory to the 1st District, plus all of eastern and southern Sampson County to the 3rd District (the “green arrow” becoming the “purple arrow” in the pictures above). The 2nd District also gains several densely populated precincts in Wake County from the 4th District in exchange for a low-density precinct in Chatham County. The 2nd District undergos the most dramatic changes of all of the 13 districts, becoming less rural and much more urban and suburban. The 2nd will become the “Triangle Exurbs” district. Goes from Safe Democrat to Battleground (only when Bob Etheridge retires).
3. CD-3 Expands - The 2nd District’s loss is the 3rd District’s gain: southeast Sampson County and several Nash County precincts will change hands. Geographically, the 3rd District picks up a lot of new territory. But demographically, the change is slight. This will remain a mostly rural, coastal district. Remains Safe Republican.
4. CD-4 Shrinks - The Research Triangle area, and Wake County in particular, is experiencing unprecedented growth. This will cause the 4th District to shed some of its Wake County precincts to the 2nd and 13th Districts. The make-up of the district will not change dramatically, becoming a slightly less urban and slightly more suburban and exurban. Remains Safe Democrat.
5. CD-5 Expands - The 5th District will pick up a lot of territory, gaining the northwest corner of Guilford County from the 6th District, several urban precincts around Greensboro and Winston-Salem from the 12th District, and a few rural precincts from the 13th District in Rockingham County. The 5th also swaps one county for another with the 10th District: Alexander County for Avery County. This probably does not pose any major changes for the district: it picks up some “liberal” urban precincts, but some “conservative” rural and suburban ones as well. Remains Safe Republican.
6. CD-6 Shrinks - It’s not a major change, but the 6th District will lose its northwest corner of Guilford County to the 5th District.  Other than that, the 6th stays exactly the same.  It will remain the conservative core of North Carolina’s Piedmont. Remains Safe Republican.
7. CD-7 Remains the Same - No changes whatsoever in the 7th District. While Wilmington is experiencing a lot of growth, the rest of the region is becoming less populated. The effect on CD-7? It stays exactly the same. Goes from Safe Democrat to Battleground (only when Mike McIntyre retires).
8. CD-8 Remains the Same - The theory is (which I read here), the 8th District will have to expand into the Charlotte suburbs to account for the rapid growth in the area and the 9th District’s need to shed about 70,000 voters. But I don’t think that’s going to happen. Here’s why: the 10th District is “land-locked” between two districts that haven’t grown very much as compared to the rest of the state (the 11th and 5th Districts). Therefore, the 10th District will have to expand south and east into the Charlotte suburbs, taking densely populated Gaston County precincts away from the 9th District.  With the 9th District shedding voters in Gaston, it’s going to remain virtually unchanged in Mecklenburg and Union counties. And if the 9th District holds on to most of its precincts east and south of Charlotte, the 8th District will remain unaffected. My map above bears this out. Remains Democrat-Leaning.
9. CD-9 Shrinks - As I write above, the 9th District will lose precincts to the 10th District in Gaston County. But I predict that the 9th will retain all or most of its Mecklenburg and Union County precincts. The demographics probably won’t be affected by the loss of some Gaston County precincts, but the overall district is trending more towards the Democrats’ favor as Charlotte has become more liberal over the decades. I’m not predicting the 9th District will be a battleground district anytime soon, but the GOP should definitely keep its eye on the trend line. Goes from Safe Republican to Republican-Leaning (only when Sue Myrick retires).
10. CD-10 Shifts - I wrote that the 2nd District will have the most dramatic changes after 2010. The 10th District probably comes in at number two. First, I predict that the 10th and 5th will swap Avery and Alexander counties. Second, as I state above, geography dictates that the 10th District expand into Gaston County, picking up tens of thousands of voters from the 9th District. Third, the 10th will lose voters in the north and west to compensate for the gains in Gaston; the 11th District will take Michell and most of western Rutherford County from the 10th. If my prediction turns out to be correct, the 10th will become the “Foothills and Charlotte Exurbs” district: less rural, more urban and suburban, and probably slightly less conservative (although it will probably remain one of the safest “red” districts in the state). Remains Safe Republican.
11. CD-11 Expands - At the expense of the 10th District, the 11th will pick up Michell and western Rutherford counties. These are largely rural, sparsely populated areas. The demographic affect will be slight, but the trend line will probably point slightly more conservative (solidifying the 11th District’s claim as one of the most competitive Congressional Districts in all of the South). Remains a Battleground.
12. CD-12 Shrinks - The amorphous blob that is the 12th Congressional District will probably remain about the same, hugging I-85 from Charlotte to Greensboro. There has been a lot of growth in the Triad and in Charlotte, but more in the suburban areas than urban ones. The 12th District is almost entirely urban. I predict that it will shrink slightly, losing precincts in Winston-Salem and Greensboro to the 5th District. Thus, the district will lose a few thousand African-American voters, becoming more conservative in the process, but it will remain 100 percent locked up for the Dems for eons. Remains Safe Democrat.
13. CD-13 Shifts - Like the 10th District, the 13th is land-locked with nowhere to grow but east (unless Virginia is willing to give North Carolina some land). The 13th will shed some precincts on its western flank in Rockingham County to the 5th District — and some precints on its eastern flank in Granville County to the 1st District — in order to expand into Wake County, relieving the 4th District from some of its most densely populated precincts. CD-13 was drawn to be a battleground district after the last census, but it didn’t turn out that way. It’s been a safe Democrat seat since its creation. And its shift out of parts of two rural counties, expanding more into Raleigh, probably makes it even safer for the Dems. Remains Safe Democrat.

That’s it!  There’s my long-winded explanation of a redistricting plan that may or may not happen as I predict.  If you have any thoughts, disagreements, or ammendments to “Nathan’s 2012 North Carolina Redistricting Plan,” please post a comment!