The morning after the biggest political upset imaginable — in this critical mid-term election year, on the eve of the health care vote…and the one-year anniversary of President Obama’s inaguration — let’s revisit those “Ten Campaign Themes to Watch in 2010” I wrote about a few weeks ago and extrapolate what was in play yesterday in Massachusetts:

1. How real is the tea party effect? // We should ask Martha Coakley what she things about this question! I would say the answer is: Pretty real! There’s no longer any doubt: the Tea Party Movement is the most powerful political trend in 2010. Big government politicians beware!
2. How many more Democrats head for the exits? // Do you have a calculator? I predict a flood retirements and resignations in the upcoming weeks, possibly beginning in the Bay State itself: Gov. Deval Patrick is floundering in the polls just as the candidate he backed in the Senate special election. A Massachusetts Senate seat and the Governorship couldn’t possibly fall into Republican hands, could they? Retirements and resignations are no longer limited to “battleground districts”.
3. Will Republicans have the funds they need to win big? // Scott Brown’s campaign proves that they will — even when the RNC is reluctant to pour money into an “unwinnable” race. Scott Brown’s success was based on grassroots organizing and online fund-raising. Sound familiar?
4. Does the economy turn around? // This remains to be seen, but it was obviously one of the major factors in Massachusetts yesterday. Polling suggests that two issues were on voters’ minds yesterday: 1) Anger at the Democrats’ attempt to ram-through an unpopular health care bill, and 2) anger that the economy and jobs continue to play second fiddle as policy priorities. (Anger is probably the operative word here.) It’s still the economy, stupid!
5. How will tough votes in 2009 translate to 2010? // There’s no doubt that this question was answered yesterday. Brown ran as the “41st vote” — the knight in shining armor to stop the health care bill in its tracks. Voters responded. It’s unmistakable: everyone who said “Yay” to the health care behemuth, TARP, or the stimulous (”spend-u-must”) bills is sweating bullets this morning.
6. Can Republicans restore their good name? // Despite yesterday’s outcome, I still think this remains to be seen. Massachusetts voters weren’t voting for the Republican per se, they were voting for the independent, anti-big government outsider. But if more Republicans follow Scott Brown’s campaign blueprint, 2010 will be a very, very good year for the GOP.
7. What does President Obama do for the Democrats? // Answer: he loses races! President Obama campaigned for a grand total of three Democrats in the past year: Creigh Deeds, Jon Corzine, and Martha Coakley. All three lost. (Throw in the Chicago Olympics bid and he’s 0 for 4!)  Two of these candidates were in “safe” Democratic stronholds, New Jersey and Massachusetts. One year ago, did anyone think Obama could possibly be a drag on Democrat candidates in 2009 and 2010? No way! But that’s exactly what he’s become. At this point, Republicans are begging Obama to interject himself into more races.
8. How much emphasis do the national parties put on governor’s races? // One lesson from Massachusetts is this: every state is in play. The Republican Governor’s Association and the RNC will surely compete in every state they can in 2010.
9. Will open seats ruin the NRSC’s Election Day? // This question wasn’t answered yesterday, but I would say that many more Republicans who may have retired will reconsider — and stick around for the chance to unseat Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
10. Do Democrats face formidable primaries? // This is a very interesting question. The take-aways for Republicans observing the Massachusetts race seem to be pretty clear: Do what Brown did. But for Democrats it could be more complicated. Do they go back to the drawing board — as Sen. Jim Webb has suggested — run to the center…and draw-in primary challengers from the left? Or do they double-down on their policy agenda — as Nancy Pelosi hinted they should — and face the Tea Party buzzsaw in November? These aren’t great options either way.

What’s your take? What did Massachusetts tell us about 2010 election trends?

On Monday, Jessica posted her “Ten Twitter Tips for Campaigns in 2010″; to continue the theme, today I’ve linked up an article from the United Kingdom on “How the 2010 Election Will be Won by Blogs and Tweets”, appearing earlier this month in The Guardian:

(more…)

In a continuation of yesterday’s theme of 2010 political trends, Rob Christensen, the famous Raleigh News & Observer political reporter and author of one of my all-time favorite books, The Paradox of Tar Heel Politics, wrote a column on his predictions for North Carolina politics in the New Year. His article is titled “Who has the edge in ‘10? The view from my murky research…”

The highlights:

• Christensen says Cal Cunningham has the edge in the Democratic primary, but Sen. Richard Burr still has the advantage in the general election.
• The only real battleground Congressional race is the 8th District, where numerous Republican candidates are lining up to take on Rep. Larry Kissell. Christensen gives the slight edge to the GOP (which is surprisingly good news to me!).
• Republican challengers in Triangle area Congressional races are grabbing some headlines, but Christen believes (and I agree) that the entrenched Democratic incumbents there will be tough — if not impossible — to beat. He also gives the nod to the Democrats in trying to retain their majority in the State House.
• The big surprise is that Rob Christensen thinks the GOP has the advantage in trying to capture the State Senate for the first time…ever. Republicans need to pick up six seats to do it. Christensen likes their chances and thinks that a GOP victory would propel State Senate leader Phil Berger to 2012 Governor contender status.

Read the full article below…

Time to haul my fractured, cloudy crystal ball out of the closet for a look at what will happen in Tar Heel politics this year.

Dominating the political landscape will be the Senate contest in which Republican Sen. Richard Burr faces re-election in November.

But first the Democrats must choose a challenger in the May primary. The three main contestants are former state Sen. Cal Cunningham of Lexington, Chapel Hill attorney Ken Lewis and Secretary of State Elaine Marshall.

Cunningham has the backing of the powerful Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the White House, giving him a significant money advantage. Marshall’s best hope is to run a feisty underdog campaign with the support of liberals, women and lots of contributors. Lewis, a political novice, is trying to make a huge leap. In the primary, edge Cunningham.

Burr’s polling numbers are anemic for an incumbent. It’s not that people don’t like Burr, but after five years in office, he has yet to make a strong impression. Despite his standing in the polls, Burr is a well-financed, A-list candidate running in a Republican-leaning year. In the general election, edge Burr.

The one true swing congressional district in the state is the 8th, which stretches from Charlotte to Fayetteville.

Freshman Democrat Larry Kissell is already facing a divided party because of his vote against the Democrats’ health care plan. Edge Republicans.

Republican candidates are lining up to challenge Triangle Democratic Reps. David Price, Brad Miller and Bob Etheridge. But these are entrenched, well-financed incumbents in Democratic-leaning districts. Edge Democrats.

The North Carolina Senate has been in Democratic hands for 110 years. The Democrats hold a 30-20 lead, and the GOP needs to pick up six seats. With a number of veteran Democrats retiring, this is possible. Would a newly installed Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger begin laying the groundwork for a challenge to Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue in 2012? Edge Republicans.

The GOP is looking for a repeat of 1994 when it gained control of the state House for the first time in nearly a century. But House Democrats, who hold a 68-52 majority, are in a stronger position than their Senate colleagues. Edge Democrats.

This is my 17th year of making predictions, and they should be taken with a truckload of salt.

Last year I predicted: that Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker would be re-elected (right); that Attorney General Roy Cooper would enter the Senate race (wrong); that Gene Conti would be named transportation secretary (right); that Dempsey Benton would remain Health and Human Services secretary (wrong); that Perdue would persuade the legislature to raise the cigarette tax (right); that the unions would push through Congress a bill to allow Tar Heel law enforcement personnel to organize (not yet); and Hampton Dellinger and Ripley Rand would be named two of the state’s new U.S. attorneys (stay tuned).

Aaron Blake, writing in The Hill,  lists “Ten Campaign Themes to Watch” in this big mid-term election here. Here they are:

1. How real is the tea party effect?
2. How many more Democrats head for the exits?
3. Will Republicans have the funds they need to win big?
4. Does the economy turn around?
5. How will tough votes in 2009 translate to 2010?
6. Can Republicans restore their good name?
7. What does President Obama do for the Democrats?
8. How much emphasis do the national parties put on governor’s races?
9. Will open seats ruin the NRSC’s Election Day?
10. Do Democrats face formidable primaries?

This is a fairly exhaustive list of the themes and trends that should shape the 2010 election. I would add one more: terrorism.

In 2009, the War on Terror — and the war in Afghanistan in particular — was, at best, fourth on the list of priorities in the national political dialogue (behind the economy, jobs,  and health care). With the recent terrorist attacks in Ft. Hood and Detroit, national security may again jump to the top of the list of concerns for the American people. If that happens, there will surely be consequences in November. Traditionally, voters favor Republicans on questions of national security. Will they again? And is this yet another troubling trend for the Democrats in 2010?

What are you thoughts on the campaign themes to watch this year?