Here are a few thoughts on the election results — and some lessons for activists, potential candidates, politics junkies and insiders:

1. It’s still the economy, stupid. The results in New Jersey, Virginia, and elsewhere prove that voters — above everything else — still vote their wallets and pocketbooks. Cultural issues were far less important (see Virginia), and Independents don’t put a lot of stock in personal attacks (Virginia and New Jersey) or endorsements (Virginia, New Jersey, and upstate New York). Exit polls revealed that 20 percent of New Jersey voters and 37 percent of Virginia voters (according to one poll) said the economy and jobs were the number one factor in whom they voted for. My guess: an overwhelming majority would rate the economy and jobs as one of their top three issues. Campaigns that focus on lowering taxes, cutting spending, improving economic and business conditions, and creating jobs will be the winning campaigns of 2010.
2. Incumbents beware. There was a general “Throw the bums out!” atmosphere during this year’s election (especially in New Jersey). If the economy remains on life support through 2010, that feeling will be even more palpable next November, to the benefit of challengers nationwide. With big majorities in the Senate, House, governor’s mansions and state houses across the country, the Democrats should be afraid. Very afraid. I would add that “Blue Dog Democrats” should also be afraid. Creigh Deeds was trying to become the third Blue Dog in a row to win the governor’s race in the “purple” state of Virginia. He lost by 18 points. Methinks his landslide loss will terrify moderate Democrats weighing the decision to vote for Pelosicare this month.
3. Money can’t buy you love. What can $100 million buy you? A 5-point victory in the New York City mayor’s race. How about $130 million? A couple of statewide victories in New Jersey in 2000 and 2005…and then a swift boot out the door in 2009. Bloomberg and Corzine proved that money can’t buy you votes (at least not enough for comfortable victories). Christie won in New Jersey despite being outspent by a 3-1 margin. Bloomberg was well ahead in the polls, running against a relative unknown, and outspent his opponent by gazillions of dollars. He still only won by 5. It’s still the mother’s milk of politics, but money sure isn’t everything anymore.
4. Online advocacy really does work. If money’s influence is diminishing — at least in comparison with other factors — which tools are gaining in influence? Answer: the Internet. There’s a nice write-up on Bob McDonnell’s online advocacy effort — with further links and case studies on e-advocacy — at epolitics.com.
5. What a mess in NY-23. Finally, I can’t ignore the results of the special election in New York’s 23rd Congressional District. Here are my thoughts:

• We have to acknowledge Obama’s brilliant strategy of picking off Republicans in blue states and battleground districts. How many does this make so far? What’s next, Chris Christie for Ambassador? Let’s hope not!
• “A house divided…” The local GOP leaders in upstate New York completely botched the whole process.  This is why the Republican Party should hold primaries. Republican leaders didn’t make it any better after the fact, trading endorsements and jabs that were more about 2012 than NY-23.
• Liberal “Republicans” posing as moderates cannot win. Period. End of story. I believe the GOP can still be a “Big Tent Party,” but that does not mean the tent should include candidates who support gay marriage, abortion rights, more government spending, and higher taxes. There’s already a party for candidates with those views. I’m willing to accept social moderates (rather, social libertarians), but I’m done with big government, big spending LIBERAL Republicans. And I think the Tea Party movement and the American people are done with them too.
• The real story of this race should be that a Conservative Party candidate captured 45 percent of the vote (the highest ever for the party). If Doug Hoffman had had an “R” beside his name, he clearly would have won. And let me also point out that Hoffman doesn’t exactly set the world on fire. I respect anyone willing to stick his neck out in a race like this — and I certainly agree with Hoffman’s politics — but passion, organization, and a grasp for local issues matter too.
• Finally, I hope the Democrats enjoy holding that seat for the next 12 months, because it’s turning red again in 2010.

Agree? Disagree? I’d love to hear your take-aways from Election Day 2009…

Tyler Harber wrote a helpful article in Politics Magazine last week called “All Staff, No Brains” discussing the perils of entrusting a campaign staff with overall campaign strategy. A good staff is important — no, essential. But there are dangers in relying on the staff to shape the campaign’s overarching approach, direction, message, and planning:

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