The morning after the biggest political upset imaginable — in this critical mid-term election year, on the eve of the health care vote…and the one-year anniversary of President Obama’s inaguration — let’s revisit those “Ten Campaign Themes to Watch in 2010” I wrote about a few weeks ago and extrapolate what was in play yesterday in Massachusetts:

1. How real is the tea party effect? // We should ask Martha Coakley what she things about this question! I would say the answer is: Pretty real! There’s no longer any doubt: the Tea Party Movement is the most powerful political trend in 2010. Big government politicians beware!
2. How many more Democrats head for the exits? // Do you have a calculator? I predict a flood retirements and resignations in the upcoming weeks, possibly beginning in the Bay State itself: Gov. Deval Patrick is floundering in the polls just as the candidate he backed in the Senate special election. A Massachusetts Senate seat and the Governorship couldn’t possibly fall into Republican hands, could they? Retirements and resignations are no longer limited to “battleground districts”.
3. Will Republicans have the funds they need to win big? // Scott Brown’s campaign proves that they will — even when the RNC is reluctant to pour money into an “unwinnable” race. Scott Brown’s success was based on grassroots organizing and online fund-raising. Sound familiar?
4. Does the economy turn around? // This remains to be seen, but it was obviously one of the major factors in Massachusetts yesterday. Polling suggests that two issues were on voters’ minds yesterday: 1) Anger at the Democrats’ attempt to ram-through an unpopular health care bill, and 2) anger that the economy and jobs continue to play second fiddle as policy priorities. (Anger is probably the operative word here.) It’s still the economy, stupid!
5. How will tough votes in 2009 translate to 2010? // There’s no doubt that this question was answered yesterday. Brown ran as the “41st vote” — the knight in shining armor to stop the health care bill in its tracks. Voters responded. It’s unmistakable: everyone who said “Yay” to the health care behemuth, TARP, or the stimulous (”spend-u-must”) bills is sweating bullets this morning.
6. Can Republicans restore their good name? // Despite yesterday’s outcome, I still think this remains to be seen. Massachusetts voters weren’t voting for the Republican per se, they were voting for the independent, anti-big government outsider. But if more Republicans follow Scott Brown’s campaign blueprint, 2010 will be a very, very good year for the GOP.
7. What does President Obama do for the Democrats? // Answer: he loses races! President Obama campaigned for a grand total of three Democrats in the past year: Creigh Deeds, Jon Corzine, and Martha Coakley. All three lost. (Throw in the Chicago Olympics bid and he’s 0 for 4!)  Two of these candidates were in “safe” Democratic stronholds, New Jersey and Massachusetts. One year ago, did anyone think Obama could possibly be a drag on Democrat candidates in 2009 and 2010? No way! But that’s exactly what he’s become. At this point, Republicans are begging Obama to interject himself into more races.
8. How much emphasis do the national parties put on governor’s races? // One lesson from Massachusetts is this: every state is in play. The Republican Governor’s Association and the RNC will surely compete in every state they can in 2010.
9. Will open seats ruin the NRSC’s Election Day? // This question wasn’t answered yesterday, but I would say that many more Republicans who may have retired will reconsider — and stick around for the chance to unseat Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
10. Do Democrats face formidable primaries? // This is a very interesting question. The take-aways for Republicans observing the Massachusetts race seem to be pretty clear: Do what Brown did. But for Democrats it could be more complicated. Do they go back to the drawing board — as Sen. Jim Webb has suggested — run to the center…and draw-in primary challengers from the left? Or do they double-down on their policy agenda — as Nancy Pelosi hinted they should — and face the Tea Party buzzsaw in November? These aren’t great options either way.

What’s your take? What did Massachusetts tell us about 2010 election trends?

On Monday, Jessica posted her “Ten Twitter Tips for Campaigns in 2010″; to continue the theme, today I’ve linked up an article from the United Kingdom on “How the 2010 Election Will be Won by Blogs and Tweets”, appearing earlier this month in The Guardian:

Read the rest of this entry »

2010 promises to be a good year for conservative campaigns both in North Carolina and across the country. Whether you are running a campaign for town council or a statewide Senate campaign, Twitter can play an important role in helping you win.

I’ve compiled ten tips and observations to help conservative campaigns engage conservative voters in 2010. These important (and perhaps obvious) Twitter tips are based on what I’ve seen campaigns do and not do with their Twitter strategies in the past year.

Take a look, remember that followers are potential voters, and get tweeting!

1. Realize Successful Twitter Accounts Do Not Come Overnight.

Campaigns need to be prepared to invest in this new media tool. Twitter accounts, like all other aspects of your campaign, will require staff time and resources. Start by creating a long term Twitter strategy that focuses on reaching and educating your potential voters. As you continue, remember that successful Twitter accounts are not measured by the amount of followers you have, but the impact your message has on those you are trying to target.

2. Customize Your Twitter Account

Fill in any possible information on the Twitter Profile (name, website, and bio at minimum), including dates for primary or general elections. Create a custom background that corresponds to the branding on your website and Facebook Page or use the background space to list url information for your other social media accounts. There are multiple options for customization, but the point here is to create a Twitter profile that is engaging and informative.

3. Remember You Have a Twitter Account

This seems obvious, but I can’t tell you how many campaigns I have seen start accounts on social networks and then fail to follow through. Twitter should be your second new media priority (after Facebook), but if your campaign hasn’t developed a strategy for using Twitter, don’t launch an account yet. It does you no favors for potential voters to see a campaign Twitter account that hasn’t been updated in months. (Of course, if you are itching to start using Twitter and just can’t seem to come up with a strategy, let’s talk).

4. Know Who Is Tweeting

For most organizations, parties, groups, and online grassroots movements, I recommend keeping personal and business accounts completely separate. However, for campaigns it’s effective for candidates to show a personal side. The trick here is to make sure it’s clear who is tweeting. If campaign staff will tweet sometimes and the candidate others, create an easy way for followers to distinguish the tweets.

5. Hashtags. Use them.

Hashtags are my favorite part of Twitter because they allow you to reach new people and categorize your tweets. I am continually amazed that there are candidates running for any office, especially Congress or Senate, who are still not using hashtags. Look around and find out which hashtags your potential followers are using and use them constantly. You could also create your own hashtag and feed it to your campaign website (warning: don’t forget that anyone can tweet anything with any hashtag). Either way, encourage your supporters to retweet or tweet about you using the hashtags your campaign is using.

6. Stop Expecting People to Come to You.

Many savvy political tweeters will seek out your Twitter account, but many, many more potential supporters will not. The best way to increase your base is to follow the people you hope will follow you. My tip for finding your followers is to pick influential tweeters in your district and follow the tweeters who are following them. You might even ask those same influential tweeters to recommend people for you to follow.

7. See Follower, Think Voter

When you see the word follower, think “potential voter” and engage tweeters in every way possible. For example, thank followers for retweeting important links and encourage them to do so in the future. Consider encouraging followers to ask questions and use the Twitter account to respond to those questions. However you go about engaging your followers, remember that followers are potential voters and you need them come Election Day.

8. Use Twitter Lists

Engage and recognize your supporters by grouping them in specific Twitter lists. Consider sending the people on these lists your press releases and links to your latest blogs first. It’s likely they will appreciate the recognition and start spreading your content. Twitter lists are an easy and quick way to see what your supporters are tweeting about.

9. Know What People Are Tweeting About Your Campaign

Don’t rely on Google alerts and the Twitter @ reply function (which is unreliable at best) for Twitter reputation management. It’s important to take time to use the Twitter search function to search for your name, district, your opponent’s name, and other relevant keywords. Follow the people who are supporting you and address any questions that have been raised by other Tweeters.

10. Don’t Stop Tweeting Once You Win

Change your account name from @nameforcongress to @RepName and tweet more than ever. You will be glad you did when the next election cycle rolls around.

(This blog is also posted at MajorityConnections.com.)

In a continuation of yesterday’s theme of 2010 political trends, Rob Christensen, the famous Raleigh News & Observer political reporter and author of one of my all-time favorite books, The Paradox of Tar Heel Politics, wrote a column on his predictions for North Carolina politics in the New Year. His article is titled “Who has the edge in ‘10? The view from my murky research…”

The highlights:

• Christensen says Cal Cunningham has the edge in the Democratic primary, but Sen. Richard Burr still has the advantage in the general election.
• The only real battleground Congressional race is the 8th District, where numerous Republican candidates are lining up to take on Rep. Larry Kissell. Christensen gives the slight edge to the GOP (which is surprisingly good news to me!).
• Republican challengers in Triangle area Congressional races are grabbing some headlines, but Christen believes (and I agree) that the entrenched Democratic incumbents there will be tough — if not impossible — to beat. He also gives the nod to the Democrats in trying to retain their majority in the State House.
• The big surprise is that Rob Christensen thinks the GOP has the advantage in trying to capture the State Senate for the first time…ever. Republicans need to pick up six seats to do it. Christensen likes their chances and thinks that a GOP victory would propel State Senate leader Phil Berger to 2012 Governor contender status.

Read the full article below…

Time to haul my fractured, cloudy crystal ball out of the closet for a look at what will happen in Tar Heel politics this year.

Dominating the political landscape will be the Senate contest in which Republican Sen. Richard Burr faces re-election in November.

But first the Democrats must choose a challenger in the May primary. The three main contestants are former state Sen. Cal Cunningham of Lexington, Chapel Hill attorney Ken Lewis and Secretary of State Elaine Marshall.

Cunningham has the backing of the powerful Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the White House, giving him a significant money advantage. Marshall’s best hope is to run a feisty underdog campaign with the support of liberals, women and lots of contributors. Lewis, a political novice, is trying to make a huge leap. In the primary, edge Cunningham.

Burr’s polling numbers are anemic for an incumbent. It’s not that people don’t like Burr, but after five years in office, he has yet to make a strong impression. Despite his standing in the polls, Burr is a well-financed, A-list candidate running in a Republican-leaning year. In the general election, edge Burr.

The one true swing congressional district in the state is the 8th, which stretches from Charlotte to Fayetteville.

Freshman Democrat Larry Kissell is already facing a divided party because of his vote against the Democrats’ health care plan. Edge Republicans.

Republican candidates are lining up to challenge Triangle Democratic Reps. David Price, Brad Miller and Bob Etheridge. But these are entrenched, well-financed incumbents in Democratic-leaning districts. Edge Democrats.

The North Carolina Senate has been in Democratic hands for 110 years. The Democrats hold a 30-20 lead, and the GOP needs to pick up six seats. With a number of veteran Democrats retiring, this is possible. Would a newly installed Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger begin laying the groundwork for a challenge to Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue in 2012? Edge Republicans.

The GOP is looking for a repeat of 1994 when it gained control of the state House for the first time in nearly a century. But House Democrats, who hold a 68-52 majority, are in a stronger position than their Senate colleagues. Edge Democrats.

This is my 17th year of making predictions, and they should be taken with a truckload of salt.

Last year I predicted: that Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker would be re-elected (right); that Attorney General Roy Cooper would enter the Senate race (wrong); that Gene Conti would be named transportation secretary (right); that Dempsey Benton would remain Health and Human Services secretary (wrong); that Perdue would persuade the legislature to raise the cigarette tax (right); that the unions would push through Congress a bill to allow Tar Heel law enforcement personnel to organize (not yet); and Hampton Dellinger and Ripley Rand would be named two of the state’s new U.S. attorneys (stay tuned).

Aaron Blake, writing in The Hill,  lists “Ten Campaign Themes to Watch” in this big mid-term election here. Here they are:

1. How real is the tea party effect?
2. How many more Democrats head for the exits?
3. Will Republicans have the funds they need to win big?
4. Does the economy turn around?
5. How will tough votes in 2009 translate to 2010?
6. Can Republicans restore their good name?
7. What does President Obama do for the Democrats?
8. How much emphasis do the national parties put on governor’s races?
9. Will open seats ruin the NRSC’s Election Day?
10. Do Democrats face formidable primaries?

This is a fairly exhaustive list of the themes and trends that should shape the 2010 election. I would add one more: terrorism.

In 2009, the War on Terror — and the war in Afghanistan in particular — was, at best, fourth on the list of priorities in the national political dialogue (behind the economy, jobs,  and health care). With the recent terrorist attacks in Ft. Hood and Detroit, national security may again jump to the top of the list of concerns for the American people. If that happens, there will surely be consequences in November. Traditionally, voters favor Republicans on questions of national security. Will they again? And is this yet another troubling trend for the Democrats in 2010?

What are you thoughts on the campaign themes to watch this year?

I was invited to write a guest post on the blog Killer Campaigning over the weekend.  I hope you’ll check it out and let me know what you think. Merry Christmas!

- Nathan

RunSmart2Win is developing a farm team of conservative elected officials, teaching future candidates how to win political races. RS2W will show candidates how to do it, demonstrating practicable strategies — taught by experts and insiders — that achieve winning results.

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RunSmart2Win’s contributors have diverse backgrounds and life experiences, but a common love for conservative politics and the great state we call home: North Carolina.  Meet the team…

Jeff Tillman is the founder of RunSmart2Win, a blog focusing on the recruitment of highly qualified GOP candidates to run for office in North Carolina. Jeff has worked in the marketing/advertising field for more than a decade. He is an Appalachian State University alumnus and lives in the heart of Starmount Forest, one of the best little neighborhoods in Greensboro, NC, with his wife, three children, and a pretty good dog named Beaufort. You can follow Jeff on Twitter here: @GOP_NC.

Nathan Babcock is a missionary turned Republican mercenary. He and his wife, Amber, are returning to North Carolina after four years in Central America. Nathan will work for a political fundraising firm, Harrington Forward Thinking, and the Institute of Political Leadership as a Spring 2010 Fellow. His moonlighting job is helping Republicans win elections by building online communities tied to grassroots movements. He is a Charlotte native and graduated from UNC. Nathan and Amber are in the process of adopting a child from Nicaragua. Nathan tweets here: @NathanBabcock.

Abigail (Abby) Alger works for the Leadership Institute, an Arlington, VA-based organization which identifies, recruits, trains, and places conservatives within the public policy process. She is keenly interested in any combination of politics, policy, and web technology — especially as it relates to government transparency and political strategy. A Duke University graduate and reformed northerner, her heart — and, eventually, her home — are in great state of North Carolina. Aside from visiting North Carolina as often as possible, she enjoys horseback riding, following horse racing, and training to be a classic movie buff. You can follow Abby on Twitter here: @AbbyAlger.

Someone plugged this redistricting app — giving users the chance to map Congressional Districts, state by state, based on 2010 population projections — and I haven’t gotten anything accomplished since! Warning: before you try it out, plan on wasting at least a couple of hours.

After playing around with how North Carolina would look with 14 Congressional Districts (which appears unlikely in this census) and writing hidden messages in the multi-colored hodgepodge of 3,000 or so precincts, I decided to take a stab at what the state could look like after the 2010 Census. Now, I realize that redistricting is largely a political exercise — with politicians and party bosses choosing their voters. But there are constraints to what the map makers can do (population constraints, rules about when districts can be drawn to cross county lines and when they can’t, etc.). So, unless legislators tear up the old map and start over (which probably wouldn’t be that bad of an idea), this is what North Carolina’s Congressional Districts could look like from 2012 to 2020. If I were a betting man, I’d put money on the map looking something like this…although I would not bet the farm on it!

First, here is a “before and after” picture of North Carolina’s 13 Congressional Districts followed by my observations on which districts change the most and the least. (Note: I flipped the colors around slightly to make CD-12 visible to the naked eye.)

Observations: did the districts shrink, expand, shift, or stay the same?

1. CD-1 Expands - The 1st District gains precincts in Granville County from the 13th District and gains all of southern Vance County, northern Franklin County, and northern Nash County from the 2nd District. The demographic make-up of the 1st District does not change much. Remains Safe Democrat.
2. CD-2 Shrinks and Shifts - The 2nd Districts loses a lot of Eastern NC territory to the 1st District, plus all of eastern and southern Sampson County to the 3rd District (the “green arrow” becoming the “purple arrow” in the pictures above). The 2nd District also gains several densely populated precincts in Wake County from the 4th District in exchange for a low-density precinct in Chatham County. The 2nd District undergos the most dramatic changes of all of the 13 districts, becoming less rural and much more urban and suburban. The 2nd will become the “Triangle Exurbs” district. Goes from Safe Democrat to Battleground (only when Bob Etheridge retires).
3. CD-3 Expands - The 2nd District’s loss is the 3rd District’s gain: southeast Sampson County and several Nash County precincts will change hands. Geographically, the 3rd District picks up a lot of new territory. But demographically, the change is slight. This will remain a mostly rural, coastal district. Remains Safe Republican.
4. CD-4 Shrinks - The Research Triangle area, and Wake County in particular, is experiencing unprecedented growth. This will cause the 4th District to shed some of its Wake County precincts to the 2nd and 13th Districts. The make-up of the district will not change dramatically, becoming a slightly less urban and slightly more suburban and exurban. Remains Safe Democrat.
5. CD-5 Expands - The 5th District will pick up a lot of territory, gaining the northwest corner of Guilford County from the 6th District, several urban precincts around Greensboro and Winston-Salem from the 12th District, and a few rural precincts from the 13th District in Rockingham County. The 5th also swaps one county for another with the 10th District: Alexander County for Avery County. This probably does not pose any major changes for the district: it picks up some “liberal” urban precincts, but some “conservative” rural and suburban ones as well. Remains Safe Republican.
6. CD-6 Shrinks - It’s not a major change, but the 6th District will lose its northwest corner of Guilford County to the 5th District.  Other than that, the 6th stays exactly the same.  It will remain the conservative core of North Carolina’s Piedmont. Remains Safe Republican.
7. CD-7 Remains the Same - No changes whatsoever in the 7th District. While Wilmington is experiencing a lot of growth, the rest of the region is becoming less populated. The effect on CD-7? It stays exactly the same. Goes from Safe Democrat to Battleground (only when Mike McIntyre retires).
8. CD-8 Remains the Same - The theory is (which I read here), the 8th District will have to expand into the Charlotte suburbs to account for the rapid growth in the area and the 9th District’s need to shed about 70,000 voters. But I don’t think that’s going to happen. Here’s why: the 10th District is “land-locked” between two districts that haven’t grown very much as compared to the rest of the state (the 11th and 5th Districts). Therefore, the 10th District will have to expand south and east into the Charlotte suburbs, taking densely populated Gaston County precincts away from the 9th District.  With the 9th District shedding voters in Gaston, it’s going to remain virtually unchanged in Mecklenburg and Union counties. And if the 9th District holds on to most of its precincts east and south of Charlotte, the 8th District will remain unaffected. My map above bears this out. Remains Democrat-Leaning.
9. CD-9 Shrinks - As I write above, the 9th District will lose precincts to the 10th District in Gaston County. But I predict that the 9th will retain all or most of its Mecklenburg and Union County precincts. The demographics probably won’t be affected by the loss of some Gaston County precincts, but the overall district is trending more towards the Democrats’ favor as Charlotte has become more liberal over the decades. I’m not predicting the 9th District will be a battleground district anytime soon, but the GOP should definitely keep its eye on the trend line. Goes from Safe Republican to Republican-Leaning (only when Sue Myrick retires).
10. CD-10 Shifts - I wrote that the 2nd District will have the most dramatic changes after 2010. The 10th District probably comes in at number two. First, I predict that the 10th and 5th will swap Avery and Alexander counties. Second, as I state above, geography dictates that the 10th District expand into Gaston County, picking up tens of thousands of voters from the 9th District. Third, the 10th will lose voters in the north and west to compensate for the gains in Gaston; the 11th District will take Michell and most of western Rutherford County from the 10th. If my prediction turns out to be correct, the 10th will become the “Foothills and Charlotte Exurbs” district: less rural, more urban and suburban, and probably slightly less conservative (although it will probably remain one of the safest “red” districts in the state). Remains Safe Republican.
11. CD-11 Expands - At the expense of the 10th District, the 11th will pick up Michell and western Rutherford counties. These are largely rural, sparsely populated areas. The demographic affect will be slight, but the trend line will probably point slightly more conservative (solidifying the 11th District’s claim as one of the most competitive Congressional Districts in all of the South). Remains a Battleground.
12. CD-12 Shrinks - The amorphous blob that is the 12th Congressional District will probably remain about the same, hugging I-85 from Charlotte to Greensboro. There has been a lot of growth in the Triad and in Charlotte, but more in the suburban areas than urban ones. The 12th District is almost entirely urban. I predict that it will shrink slightly, losing precincts in Winston-Salem and Greensboro to the 5th District. Thus, the district will lose a few thousand African-American voters, becoming more conservative in the process, but it will remain 100 percent locked up for the Dems for eons. Remains Safe Democrat.
13. CD-13 Shifts - Like the 10th District, the 13th is land-locked with nowhere to grow but east (unless Virginia is willing to give North Carolina some land). The 13th will shed some precincts on its western flank in Rockingham County to the 5th District — and some precints on its eastern flank in Granville County to the 1st District — in order to expand into Wake County, relieving the 4th District from some of its most densely populated precincts. CD-13 was drawn to be a battleground district after the last census, but it didn’t turn out that way. It’s been a safe Democrat seat since its creation. And its shift out of parts of two rural counties, expanding more into Raleigh, probably makes it even safer for the Dems. Remains Safe Democrat.

That’s it!  There’s my long-winded explanation of a redistricting plan that may or may not happen as I predict.  If you have any thoughts, disagreements, or ammendments to “Nathan’s 2012 North Carolina Redistricting Plan,” please post a comment!

Yesterday I apologized for my long absence from the blog. Today I’m going to do something unheard of in the blogesphere: promote someone else’s blog!

While I’ve pledged to pick up the pace on RunSmart2Win once more — posting about once or twice a week — I know that this isn’t enough to satisfy some of the political campaign junkies out there. So, while I hope you’ll stick around (and subscribe to our RSS feed to make reading RunSmart2Win simpler and more convenient), I strongly suggest you check out Killer Campaigning for “daily non-partisan tips for campaign junkies.”

Here’s more on Killer Campaigning:

If you’re serious about getting the best advice on running a great political campaign, then this is the site you’ve been looking for. Whether you’re running a small local campaign or a barnstorming across a state, you’ll find plenty of common-sense tips and little-known political secrets on Killer Campaigning.

The campaign tips we share on Killer Campaigning aren’t just guesswork.  These are field-tested strategies that we’ve used on numerous local, state and national campaigns . . . strategies that work.

We don’t care if you’re a Democrat, Republican, Independent or Martian . . . our advice is for everyone.  You won’t find political posturing here at Killer Campaigning, just solid campaign advice.

I want to apologize for not updating the blog in recent months. This has been an extremely busy time for me. As we bloggers like to say: “Life keeps getting in the way of my blog.” But I’m happy to announce that RunSmart2Win.com will pick up where it left off: providing campaign tips, do’s and don’t’s, and the latest news on the North Carolina political scene. I’ll start with the unambitious goal of posting one update per week — and more when time allows.

If you would like to help out — and ensure more frequent entries on RunSmart2Win — take a stab at contributing on the site!  Contact me for more details.

Again, our apologies for neglecting the blog. Our inattention does not reflect our gratitude towards our readers or our passion for the subject matter discussed here!